John Alexander

250-793-4934
 

It's been amost a year since I attended Industry Outlook 2015, sponsored by Prospera Credit Union ( I sponsored Refreshments). 

I thought that a recap of some of the highlights from Brad Magnasson's portion of the seminar would be interesting to read. Brad is a Consultant that specializes in Oil and Gas.

  • Oil is expected to rise toward 70/bbl by 2016
  • Africa has an emerging supply
  • Russia needs Crimean Ports to sell oil.
  • Russia would like to see 55-62 bbl minimum
  • WTI spot price runs parralell to the Canadian Dollar
  • Brad thinks 51/bbl is close to the bottom 
  • Wages are the leading indicator of a recovering economy
  • Oil & Gas employees making 300-350K US anually  in the oil feild would  indicate good growth
  • OPEC has not been able to control it's memebers
  • ISIS is selling oil from 28-40/bbl US
  • Saudi Arabia break even point for oil production is $106/bbl
  • Alberta break even point for oil production is $65/bb/
  • Brazil has huge unknown reserve with no infrastructure
  • We might see $82/bbl by the end of 2016 but Iran is a huge wild card.
  • US debt level is going down
  • US can stand on it's own now for oil and gas
  • Most countries have their economies tied to oil and gas
  • Power generation with LNG will continue to grow
Of course these bullets represent highlights of a well discussed industry, but I find it very interesting because you just have to recall recent fundamental developments in the last year and know which way the pendulum will swing according to markets.
I was shocked to hear $106/bbl for Saudi Arabia, and went and confirmed that figure with outside sources.
This is all good news for Fort St. John, eventually.

 

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