It's been amost a year since I attended Industry Outlook 2015, sponsored by Prospera Credit Union ( I sponsored Refreshments).
I thought that a recap of some of the highlights from Brad Magnasson's portion of the seminar would be interesting to read. Brad is a Consultant that specializes in Oil and Gas.
- Oil is expected to rise toward 70/bbl by 2016
- Africa has an emerging supply
- Russia needs Crimean Ports to sell oil.
- Russia would like to see 55-62 bbl minimum
- WTI spot price runs parralell to the Canadian Dollar
- Brad thinks 51/bbl is close to the bottom
- Wages are the leading indicator of a recovering economy
- Oil & Gas employees making 300-350K US anually in the oil feild would indicate good growth
- OPEC has not been able to control it's memebers
- ISIS is selling oil from 28-40/bbl US
- Saudi Arabia break even point for oil production is $106/bbl
- Alberta break even point for oil production is $65/bb/
- Brazil has huge unknown reserve with no infrastructure
- We might see $82/bbl by the end of 2016 but Iran is a huge wild card.
- US debt level is going down
- US can stand on it's own now for oil and gas
- Most countries have their economies tied to oil and gas
- Power generation with LNG will continue to grow
Of course these bullets represent highlights of a well discussed industry, but I find it very interesting because you just have to recall recent fundamental developments in the last year and know which way the pendulum will swing according to markets.
I was shocked to hear $106/bbl for Saudi Arabia, and went and confirmed that figure with outside sources.
This is all good news for Fort St. John, eventually.